The southwest monsoon may arrive earlier than usual in India this year.
The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Sunday that the monsoon could reach Kerala by 27 May.
Normally, it arrives around 1 June. If this prediction is correct, it will be the earliest monsoon arrival since 2009, when it reached Kerala on 23 May.
The arrival of the monsoon in Kerala marks its beginning in the Indian subcontinent. After that, it spreads gradually across the country.
Usually, the entire country sees monsoon coverage by 8 July, and it starts withdrawing from 17 September, completing by 15 October.
Here are the monsoon arrival dates for the past few years:
| Year | Monsoon arrival date |
|---|---|
| 2024 | 30 May |
| 2023 | 8 June |
| 2022 | 29 May |
| 2021 | 3 June |
| 2020 | 1 June |
| 2019 | 8 June |
| 2018 | 29 May |
However, IMD officials have said that the early or late arrival of the monsoon in Kerala does not directly affect how much rainfall the whole country will get.
One official explained, “There is no direct link between when the monsoon starts and the total rainfall in the country. Global, regional, and local factors also affect it.”
In April, the IMD predicted that India will likely receive above normal rainfall during the 2025 monsoon season and also said that El Nino, which usually leads to less rainfall, is not expected this year.
M. Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, said that India is likely to get more rainfall than average during the June to September monsoon season.
The total rainfall is expected to be 105% (with a 5% margin) of the long-term average of 87 cm, which is considered ‘above normal’.
According to the weather department:
96% to 104% rainfall is “normal”
90% to 95% is “below normal”
105% to 110% is “above normal”
Over 110% is “excessive”
Less than 90% is “deficient”
The monsoon is vital for India’s agriculture-based economy. It supports the livelihood of 42.3% of the population and contributes 18.2% to the GDP.
It is also important for filling water reservoirs used for drinking water and electricity.
