Monsoon Update: Monsoon Likely to Arrive Early, Expected in Kerala by May 27

Monsoon 2025 Update: This year, the southwest monsoon is expected to arrive in India earlier than usual.

According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon may reach Kerala on May 27, instead of its normal arrival date around June 1.

If this happens, it will be the earliest monsoon arrival since 2009, when it hit Kerala on May 23.

Why Kerala Matters

The start of the monsoon in Kerala signals the beginning of the rainy season for the entire country.

After reaching Kerala, the monsoon gradually moves across India. Typically, it covers the whole country by July 8 and begins to withdraw from September 17, finishing by October 15.

Past Monsoon Arrival Dates

Here’s when the monsoon reached Kerala over the past few years:

Does Early Monsoon Mean More Rain?

IMD officials have made it clear that an early or late arrival of the monsoon does not guarantee how much rain the country will get.

One official said, “There is no direct link between when the monsoon starts and how much rainfall we’ll receive. Many global, regional, and local factors affect this.”

Rainfall Outlook for 2025

In April, the IMD predicted that 2025 will see above-normal rainfall. They also ruled out the impact of El Niño, a weather pattern that usually causes less rain.

M Ravichandran, Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, stated that rainfall from June to September is expected to be 105% of the long-term average (which is 87 cm). This falls in the ‘above normal’ range.

How Rainfall Is Categorized

According to IMD:

Less than 90% of average = Deficient rainfall

90% to 95% = Below normal

96% to 104% = Normal

105% to 110% = Above normal

Above 110% = Excess rainfall

Why Monsoon Is So Important

The monsoon is critical to India’s agriculture, which supports 42.3% of the population and contributes 18.2% to the country’s GDP.

It also helps refill reservoirs used for drinking water and electricity generation.