Amidst the prevailing heatwave, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts an above-normal monsoon season for the country this year.
However, certain northern and northeastern states might experience comparatively lesser rainfall, extending the heat spell in those regions.
Regional Rainfall Projections
IMD Chief’s Insights on Delhi-UP Monsoon Prospects
Mrityunjay Mohapatra, the chief of IMD, predicts an average rainfall of 106 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) between June and September.
While North West India, including Delhi, Haryana, Rajasthan, Punjab, and Western Uttar Pradesh, is expected to receive normal rainfall ranging from 92 to 108 percent of LPA, certain regions in Jammu
and Kashmir, Ladakh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh might encounter below-normal rainfall.
Varied Outlook for Northeast and Other Regions
Mohapatra suggests that Odisha, West Bengal’s Gangetic region, South Chhattisgarh, and several parts of the northeastern states might witness below-normal rainfall.
Conversely, areas dependent on rain-fed agriculture, such as parts of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Jharkhand, and Odisha, could receive surplus rainfall.
Understanding Rainfall Categories
The Meteorological Department classifies rainfall based on the percentage of LPA: below 90 percent indicates ‘less’ rainfall, 90 to 95 percent is ‘below normal,’ 96 to 104 percent is ‘normal,’ and 105 to 110 percent is ‘above normal.’
Nationwide Rainfall Trends
Mohapatra notes that on average, the country receives 87 cm of rainfall between June 1 and September 30. Central India
and the South Peninsula are anticipated to experience above-normal rainfall, ranging from 94 to 106 percent of LPA.
Monsoon Progression Update
The southwest monsoon has advanced over most parts of the south and east central Bay of Bengal. Over the next five days,
favorable conditions are anticipated for its further advancement into certain areas of the south Arabian Sea, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, parts of the Bay of Bengal, and the northeastern states.
