With recent incidents of floods, landslides, and cloudbursts across different parts of the country, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has released its monthly weather report.
According to the report, rainfall across India in September 2025 is expected to be above normal.
The IMD’s Monthly Rainfall and Temperature Outlook states that the country may receive more than 109% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall this month.
Based on data from 1971 to 2020, the average September rainfall in India is around 167.9 mm.
Above Normal Rainfall Expected in Most Areas
The IMD report predicts that most parts of the country will likely experience more rainfall than usual.
However, some regions — including parts of northeastern and eastern India, southern peninsular India, and a few areas in northernmost India — may receive below normal rainfall.
Increased Risk of Floods and Landslides
While more rain can benefit agriculture and improve water availability, it also raises the risk of natural disasters such as floods, landslides, road blockages, health issues, and damage to ecosystems. To reduce these risks, it’s important to:
Strengthen local infrastructure
Use IMD’s early warnings effectively
Improve monitoring and response systems in vulnerable areas
Forecast Based on Multi-Model Ensemble Technology
The IMD has been using Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) techniques to provide monthly and seasonal monsoon forecasts since 2021.
This method uses climate models from various international research centers. India’s own Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) is also included in this approach.
The IMD released its first monsoon forecast for the 2025 season (June to September) on April 15, and an updated version on May 27.
The forecast for June was released on May 27, for July on June 30, and for August-September on July 31.
September Temperatures: Normal to Below Normal in Most Areas
The IMD also released its forecast for surface air temperatures in September. It predicts that:
Most parts of west-central, northwest, and south India will see normal to below normal maximum temperatures.
However, temperatures may be above normal in parts of east-central, eastern, northeastern India, and some regions of northwest India and the western coast.
